Investment date

M

mathieu

New member
Hello everyone,

My strategy is simple: I invest every month (at the beginning of the month, i.e. 2/3 of each month). Next week is the US presidential election, so there's likely to be a lot of fluctuation. Is it better to invest on November 1 or November 4? Thank you very much
 
Hi

If you invest for the long-term (20+ years), it does not matter in my opinion. I invest on the 25th every month and I don't change anything based on events.
 
I know we shall not time the market, but looking at the history of previous US presential elections, I expect the S&P500 and FTSE Global All Cap indexes to sharply decline just after the election, whatever candidate is elected, and then slowly get back to normal. This is a common behaviour of panic by investors. So I kept ~20k USD of cash at IBKR and wait for the election to buy more shares. This is not a financial advice, just my opinion.
 
evergreen said:
I know we shall not time the market, but looking at the history of previous US presential elections, I expect the S&P500 and FTSE Global All Cap indexes to sharply decline just after the election, whatever candidate is elected, and then slowly get back to normal. This is a common behaviour of panic by investors. So I kept ~20k USD of cash at IBKR and wait for the election to buy more shares. This is not a financial advice, just my opinion.
Click to expand...
Do you have any statistics to show me? Any studies?
 
Here are the VT/VOO charts from around the 2 last elections (I don't have access to older data). What I see is a lot of volatility during the 15 days before the election, and a steady rise after the election day (even starting just before). Considering that behaviour pattern, I would buy shares just a few days before the election, when the indexes are on the rise. No warranty though, the current geopolitical and economical situation is different than in 2020 during the pandemic. I'm curious to read your interpretation.

POTUS_2020_VT.png
POTUS_2020_VOO.png

POTUS_2016_VT.png
POTUS_2016_VOO.png
 
It will depend on who gets elected, because it will have an impact on the tax regime which will be put in place during the presidency.
You also have to hope that it doesn't go as badly as when W. Bush was in power, because we would be in for 8 years of misery...

edition.cnn.com

From Reagan to Trump: Here's how stocks performed under each president

President Donald Trump often cites the stock market as a scorecard of his policies. Here’s how the S&P 500 performed under each president from Reagan to Trump.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top