Mega-tech bros IPO - exposure for us?

[Ex Pat]

Nasdaq changed its rules for the Anthropic + SpaceX + OpenAI to skip the 3-months cool down period before entering the Nasqad index , and jump the line after 15 trading days.

This means that immediately after these huge IPOs, whoever invests in Naqsdaq will start investing in these mega-corps at the near-IPO over-price.

Details:

Question: I did my homework, VT should not be exposed. Neither S&P 500 (they refused the fast track nasdaq rule).

Is finpension investing in Nasdaq? How can I verify?

 

[Baptiste Wicht]

I don't understand why they are changing the rules for that Probabably some money changing hands...

S&P500 is not exposed directly indeed.

But I believe that VT is
FTSE has announced a fast-entry rule for large IPOs. With that, it should only take 5 trading days to include these companies.

Finpension 3a does not have a Nasdaq fund
Finpension Invest has one Nasdaq fund, but it's not used by default, only for custom portfolios I believe.

 

[Ex Pat]

But I believe that VT is
FTSE has announced a fast-entry rule for large IPOs. With that, it should only take 5 trading days to include these companies.

Thanks! I didn't know about these Russell indeces.

I checked with LLMs and the situation is not that bad.

Current reported target valuations:

• SpaceX: targeting ~$1.75 trillion valuation MarketWise
• OpenAI: last raised at $852 billion, IPO likely above $1 trillion Yahoo Finance
• Anthropic: targeting ~$900 billion valuation MarketWise

Combined: roughly $3.5–3.7 trillion at IPO float-adjusted.

These companies are expected to list only 3–8% of shares publicly. So even at $1.75T (SpaceX), only that tiny float gets counted in the index. The global equity market is roughly $115T — meaning all three companies combined, at 5% float, represent around 0.15% of VT's index.

Index providers (FTSE Russell for VT, CRSP for VTI) updated their rules specifically because of these IPOs. Both now have "fast entry" provisions for mega-cap listings, so inclusion happens days to weeks after IPO — not months. But here's the catch: weight is based on float, not total market cap.

What changes over time : Weight grows mechanically as insiders sell and float expands — typically as lock-ups expire 6–12 months post-IPO.

This is different from the S&P 500, which does require four consecutive quarters of positive earnings. That's why VOO holders will wait longer — SpaceX can't enter the S&P 500 until June 2027 at the earliest (12 months post-IPO) and only if it meets the profitability screen.

• VT/VTI — includes them fast, no profit requirement
• VOO — waits 12+ months and requires demonstrated profitability

I don't understand why they are changing the rules for that Probabably some money changing hands...

Investors poured a lot of money into these companies that don't respect the rules to be included in these indeces. Those investors want to get that money back through the IPO, and they probably had enough lobby power to convince the right people to change the rules for them. Maybe those "right people" were invested as well in the mega-corps.

AI Summary:

The numbers are staggering. Here's the summary:

• SpaceX: ~$11.9 billion raised over 32 rounds from 253 investors — but notably, a large chunk of early funding came from NASA contracts rather than pure equity. Relatively modest private capital for a $1.75T valuation, which reflects how efficiently Musk built it. Tracxn
• OpenAI: ~$180 billion raised over 15 rounds, with the bulk coming very recently. The latest round alone was $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation, anchored by Amazon ($50B), Nvidia ($30B), and SoftBank ($30B). TracxnBloomberg
• Anthropic: ~$132 billion raised over 18 rounds. The most recent Series H closed at $65 billion at a $965 billion post-money valuation, led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia. TracxnAnthropic
• Combined: ~$324 billion poured in before a single share trades publicly.

Mutual funds + ETFs hold more than one third of the stock market.

"While index funds held 16% of the US stock market in 2021, we put the true passive-ownership share at 33.3%. Our headline number is twice as large because it reflects index funds as well as other kinds of passive investors, such as direct indexers and active managers who are closet indexing." (harvard business school paper)

 

[gaijin]

I fully agree that these changes of rules is a bad move, especially for small investors. This also includes most private investors. It will be more difficult to justify VT as a neutral ETF based on clearly defined rules.
In the end it's business. It's focus is not (and has never been) on small private investors. If you prefer passive and simple investing, VT is still the best option for 90% of non-professional investors.
My fear is that this mega IPO will discourage beginning investors from investing, since they have the impression that they will be cheated. On the other hand, my hope is that this IPO will make more people interested in investing and willing to learn about financial topics.