FIRE strategies for Swiss investors

Baptiste Wicht said:
What about you then? Do you plan to retire in Switzerland with a 4.5%+ withdrawal rate?
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I would gladly do that! This is why I am trying to find out whether this US USD simulation is applicable to retirement in Switzerland.

Baptiste Wicht said:
The problem is that if you have 50 years of data, you can only do a single 50-year retirement simulation. If you are limiting yourself to such a sample, you need to rely on something else than historical analysis.
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I can be wrong, but as far as I can imagine, in such a case multiple 50-year rows are built by randomly combining single historical years (or blocks of years).
 
Max said:
I can be wrong, but as far as I can imagine, in such a case multiple 50-year rows are built by randomly combining single historical years (or blocks of years).
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It depends on your method.

If you do pure historical analysis, this does not work like it; each month is followed by the next one.
But if you do historical sampling (bootstrapping), you would indeed be able to build multiple sets of 50 years from a single 50-year period.
 
Baptiste Wicht said:
It depends on your method.

If you do pure historical analysis, this does not work like it; each month is followed by the next one.
But if you do historical sampling (bootstrapping), you would indeed be able to build multiple sets of 50 years from a single 50-year period.
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If I understand correctly, the pure historical analysis is unsuitable in this case. So an alternative is necessary.
 
Baptiste Wicht said:
Are you worried about the worst duration of this strategy (ability to fail early)? The success rate is quite high, with 3.5% over 50 years.

A glidepath could help there I think.
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I think this is actually an interesting distinction.

Many people seem to like the idea of financial independence much more than the idea of permanent retirement.

Personally, I find myself somewhere in between.

Having enough capital to reduce working hours, take a few years off, change careers or stop full-time work earlier feels much more realistic (and appealing) to me than never working again for the next 40 or 50 years.

Maybe financial independence is more of a spectrum than an all-or-nothing goal.
 
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