Swiss Franc Strength

[tanguy]

Hi everyone,

I was wondering about the Swiss Franc weakening against the Euro recently. It dropped quite a bit since January. I spend quite some amount of money in Euro, and had I known it would have dropped, I would have transferred more money in January.
Why is the Swiss Franc weakening? Do you have some resources about currency value, and how they changed? What can we expect for the future (short and long term)?

Thanks in advance for your insight

 

[Michael]

I'm by far not an expert, but the SNB (Schweizer Nationalbank) has a big influence here. Depending on the strategy they will actively weaken the CHF or not (happened few years ago when they felt CHF got too strong so it hurts our exports).
SNB also lowered the interest on CHF in March, while the EZB (Europäische Zentralbank) and the FED (USA) did not change, therefore it makes sense that CHF became less attractive immediately after this (short-term). You can't reliably predict what happens next though, and if you think you know, then the market already knows before you and it is included in the current price.

Overall I would advise against betting on the (short-term) future development of the currency as I consider it a gamble.

Historically, CHF has became more and more attractive compared to other currencies, so keeping your liquid money (such as emergency fund) in CHF makes sense to me.

 

[Baptiste Wicht]

There is no way to know in advance when this will happen.

But the Swiss franc has indeed been weakening since the beginning of the year against both EUR and USD.

Apparently, this mostly comes from the SNB cutting rates earlier than expected. And the US did not cut their rates as early as expected.

As for the future, I have zero clue as to what will happen